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KRW: Spot USD/KRW Should Open Weaker, But Recent Ranges Holding

KRW
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The early spot impetus for USD/KRW today may be to the downside. The pair ended extended Thursday trade at 1342, so close to recent highs. However, the 1 month NDF ended NY Thursday trade close to 1335, as speculation of a potentially larger Fed cut next week weighed on broader USD sentiment. The generally positive close for US equities on Thursday was another won tailwind. 

  • For spot USD/KRW we remain within broader ranges for the past month, albeit with an upside bias. The pair hasn't been able to sustain breaks above the 20-day EMA (near 1343), but equally downside momentum has been very shallow in recent sessions. Sep 6 lows just under 1326 could be a downside target on any fresh push lower.
  • The offshore lead for the Kospi today is mixed, with the SOX index finishing down slightly for Thursday trade, but the MSCI IT was up nearly 1%. Broader US/EU markets indices were all up as well.
  • To recap, the Kospi rallied 2.34% yesterday, with offshore investors added $366.2mn to local shares. Net outflows remain strongly negative for the week to date and for September as a whole.
  • On the data front, we have already had August trade price figures, with export prices down 2.6%m/m, bringing the y/y pace back to 5.7%, versus July highs at 13%. Money supply figures for July are out later.
  • Note that South Korean financial markets are closed next Monday-Wednesday for the Chuseok holiday. 
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The early spot impetus for USD/KRW today may be to the downside. The pair ended extended Thursday trade at 1342, so close to recent highs. However, the 1 month NDF ended NY Thursday trade close to 1335, as speculation of a potentially larger Fed cut next week weighed on broader USD sentiment. The generally positive close for US equities on Thursday was another won tailwind. 

  • For spot USD/KRW we remain within broader ranges for the past month, albeit with an upside bias. The pair hasn't been able to sustain breaks above the 20-day EMA (near 1343), but equally downside momentum has been very shallow in recent sessions. Sep 6 lows just under 1326 could be a downside target on any fresh push lower.
  • The offshore lead for the Kospi today is mixed, with the SOX index finishing down slightly for Thursday trade, but the MSCI IT was up nearly 1%. Broader US/EU markets indices were all up as well.
  • To recap, the Kospi rallied 2.34% yesterday, with offshore investors added $366.2mn to local shares. Net outflows remain strongly negative for the week to date and for September as a whole.
  • On the data front, we have already had August trade price figures, with export prices down 2.6%m/m, bringing the y/y pace back to 5.7%, versus July highs at 13%. Money supply figures for July are out later.
  • Note that South Korean financial markets are closed next Monday-Wednesday for the Chuseok holiday.