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Labour Leads In Scottish Westminster Polling For First Time Since 2014

UK

The latest opinion polling on how the Scottish electorate would vote in a UK general election shows the centre-left Labour Party leading for the first time in a Westminster poll since 2014. The poll from YouGov for the Daily Record shows Labour on 38%, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) on 32%, and PM Rishi Sunak's Conservatives on 16%. A resurgence for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour in Scotland could have significant implications for the whole of the United Kingdom come the next general election.

  • Labour holds a significant ~15-20% lead in most UK-wide Westminster opinion polling, which would usually indicate the party is on course for a majority in the House of Commons.
  • If - as this poll indicates - Labour were able to win back a sizeable number of Scottish seats it last held prior to the 2015 general election (41 out of 59, down to just a single Scottish seat in the 2019GE) its path to overhauling the Conservatives' majority in the Commons would prove much easier, as it would not rely solely on winning back seats in Wales and England.
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