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Labour market data due at 7:00BST

  • Just a reminder that we have labour market data due for release at 7:00BST.
  • The headline unemployment and earnings data will give us data for the Jun-Aug period while the experimental HMRC payroll data will give us the first indications of September employment.
  • Labour market data are one of the most important datapoints for the MPC at present, and with the market having moved to fully price a December rate hike, today's data will be closely scrutinised.
  • However, it is really the next couple of months of labour market data that will be key. The furlough scheme rolled off at the end of September and so the transition following the conclusion of the scheme will be pivotal for whether the Bank of England have the confidence to hike this year.
  • So absent any huge surprises in today's data, it is next month's labour market data that is the big one and today's release is largely expected to play second fiddle to monthly activity data due tomorrow. With this in mind, we do not expect a large market reaction in response to today's print.

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