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Labour market data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • There seems to be two-way risks from this morning's data to pricing for next week's meeting while pricing for year-end (187bp currently priced) and the terminal rate (258bp priced by May 2023) have more potential to price in less, rather than more.
  • Most closely watched will be average weekly earnings - both the including and excluding bonus numbers - as this is one of the best gauges the MPC has for second round inflationary effects.
  • The August payrolls number will also be important.
  • The previous print saw stronger growth in employment and also higher wage growth than had been expected – a repeat would likely see markets lean further towards pricing in a 75bp hike for next week (66bp is currently priced).
  • The UK's busy data week continues tomorrow with inflation data at 7:00BST.
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