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Labour market data due at 7:00BST

UK
  • The UK data highlight for the week will be the labour market data due shotly, particularly average weekly earnings data which are expected to accelerate further on a headline basis to 6.8%Y/Y (3mma) which would be the highest print since August 2021 (when the pandemic base effects were distorting the data).
  • Consensus sees the ex-bonus print falling a tenth from 7.2% to 7.1%Y/Y (3mma) – note that this measure peaked at 7.3% in June 2021 (and again that data was distorted).
  • We think the market will be very sensitive to the labour market report – it is now second only to the inflation print in terms of market-relevance.
  • This will be the only labour market report ahead of the August MPC meeting and hence the last print that the BOE can use in the next round of its MPR forecasts.
  • If we were to get a downside surprise here it could see a notable reduction in the market’s current pricing of around 45bp for the August meeting.
  • However, an upside surprise would more likely push up pricing further out in the curve in our view (which peaked at 144bp of cumulative hikes by March next year at yesterday's close).
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