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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RBA
In June incoming RBA Governor Bullock spoke about the labour market and not only mentioned that the RBA’s estimate of the NAIRU is around 4.5% but also the key indicators the central bank is monitoring. These include the unemployment & underemployment rates and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment. The RBA is likely to be reassured that in August these indicators suggested that the labour market continues to ease “a little”, however it does remain tight.
- The unemployment rate has been fairly steady for around a year now but at 3.7% in July/August is around 0.3pp higher than the October 2022 trough but still well below the NAIRU. The number of unemployed is +42.5k on the year and +8.5% y/y but the labour force has also risen strongly.
- The underemployment rate rose to 6.6% in August from 6.4% and is now 0.7pp higher than February’s trough. It remains low historically though as it was 2pp higher in the three months to March 2020. This data has been cited by the RBA as evidence of easing labour market pressures.
Australia unemployment vs underemployment rates %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- The vacancies-to-unemployment chart shown by Bullock used the ABS’ quarterly series but monthly internet vacancy data is now updated to August. The ratio of this with unemployment took a step down in Q3 to date to average 52.2% after 54.5% in Q2. Like the quarterly series it remains elevated but off its peak.
Australia internet vacancies-to-unemployment ratio %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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