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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's centre-left Labour Party trails the centre-right Nationals in the two latest opinion polls released, the first time the governing party has trailed in consecutive surveys since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Kantar Public: Nationals: 39% (+7), Labour: 37 (-3), Greens: 9% (=), ACT: 8 (-3), Maori: 2% (=), NZF: 2% (=). Fieldwork: 5-8 Mar, chgs w/22-26 Jan. 1,000 respondents.
- Roy Morgan: Nationals: 38% (+3), Labour 32% (-1), Greens: 11% (+0.5), ACT: 11.5% (-2), Maori: 2% (-0.5), NZF: 2% (-0.5). Fieldwork: 31 Jan-22 Feb. Chgs w/2-30 Jan. 963 respondents.
- In 2022 the Omicron variant has spread rapidly among a population with reasonable levels of vaccination but very low levels of natural immunity. This resulted in lockdowns being imposed while other nations began to re-open their economies, damaging gov't support. New Zealand has also been subject to similar anti-vaccine mandate protests as seen in a number of other Western nations, resulting in a bitter political and cultural schism.
- The gov't is also struggling to deal with a rising cost of living crisis, which has combined with New Zealand's long-running housing crisis to damage gov't support.
- Also, the Nationals - after changing leadership three times in under two years - appear to have found a party head able to garner significant public support in the form of former Air New Zealand CEO Christopher Luxon.
Chart 1. New Zealand Opinion Polling, % and 4 Poll Moving Average
Source: Kantar Public, Roy Morgan, Curia, Reid Research, Talbot Mills, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual data point.
- Next election not due until 2024 at the latest but at present Labour would fall well short of a majority. Both the historic centre-left bloc (Labour and Greens) and centre-right bloc (Nationals and ACT) would have to rely on support from either the indigenous rights Maori Party or the populist New Zealand First party. Both smaller parties have in the past worked with the left and the right.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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