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Lagarde: Labour Tightness And Inflation Declining, Growth Risks To Downside

ECB
Lagarde continues with a relatively constructive assessment on progress in the labour market and inflation dynamics though notes a downside tilt to growth risks:
  • The tightness in the labour market continues to gradually decline with fewer vacancies. Governments should continue to roll back energy support measures so disinflation can proceed sustainably.
  • Inflation has continued to decline. However, services price inflation remained high in March at 4.0% Y/Y. Most measures of underlying inflation fell further in February.
  • While domestic inflation remains high, wages and unit profit grew less strongly than anticipated in the last quarter of 2023. More recent indicators point to further moderation in wage growth.
  • Inflation is expected to fluctuate around current levels in the coming months and then decline to target next year owing to weaker growth in labour costs, the unfolding effects of restrictive monetary policy and the fading impact of the energy crisis and pandemic.
  • Measures of longer term inflation expectations remain broadly stable around 2%.
  • Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside.
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