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Lagarde: Rate Hikes Transmitting Faster Than Usual

ECB

Q: What is your assessment of the pace and extent of the monetary policy transmission? Question on wage growth.

  • A: There is evidence that the current hiking cycle is transmitting to financing conditions faster than previous ones.
  • A: One of the bright spots is the labour market, which is still going strongly. We are seeing some weakening in the volume of hires and in service sectors related to manufacturing.

Q: How much of a drag on overall growth is the housing market? Can you elaborate on how you decided to hike today?

  • A: We indicated that we would approach the assessment looking at underlying inflation, the inflation outlook and the transmission. On the inflation outlook, we looked at the staff projections and we see an upward revision to headline inflation in 2023 and 2024 and a marginal decrease in 2025. On core inflation, it is maintained in 2023 and revised in 2024 and 2025. Overall, we are not at target in 2025 on headline inflation, and only almost on target for core.
  • A (by VP de Guindos): There is a slowdown in resident property, but in commercial property we identified a decline in prices even before the monetary tightening cycle. We have found links between commercial property and mutual funds. There are real estate funds that have a lot of exposure to commercial property, which we monitor very closely.
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