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November's US employment report shows very different things when looking at the Household survey vs the Establishment survey: household survey +1.136mn employed; establishment +210k. Hence the discrepancy between the weak headline payrolls figure (Establishment survey) and the sharp drop in unemployment rate (Household survey).

  • That 926k difference between the Household and Establishment series job gains is one of the highest on record, and the biggest in a positive (for Household) since Oct 2020 - though it's been a very volatile spread since the pandemic began.
  • As such there may be some measurement / modeling errors going on here.
  • But with the Household Survey seemingly according more to the anecdotal and survey data for November, we'd expect the more positive narrative to get the benefit of the doubt pending future revisions.

In Thousands.Source: BLS, MNI Calculations