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LATAM: Summary – October 10

LATAM
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • Banxico will release the minutes to its Sept 26 meeting on Thursday, with attention on what discussions were had over a potential acceleration of the easing pace. Elsewhere, the BCRP is expected to continue its gradual easing cycle following soft September CPI inflation data, while the BCCh will publish its latest economist survey. Brazil August retail sales will also cross, while Argentina monthly CPI inflation is expected to drop below 4% in September.
  • In the US, today’s CPI print could define price action into the close, with last week's bumper NFP print squashing the likelihood of another 50bp rate cut step at the Fed's November meeting. As a result, the bar for a market-moving surprise upon release is certainly higher relative to the rest of this year's releases. Nonetheless, a particularly strong print could raise outside expectations that the Fed could skip a cut entirely at their next meeting.
  • USD/JPY is softer off overnight highs headed into the NY crossover, as markets pare a small part of yesterday's solid rally. The pair touched 149.55 in Tokyo trade - a level that could be revisited on any further upside for US yields today.
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  • Banxico will release the minutes to its Sept 26 meeting on Thursday, with attention on what discussions were had over a potential acceleration of the easing pace. Elsewhere, the BCRP is expected to continue its gradual easing cycle following soft September CPI inflation data, while the BCCh will publish its latest economist survey. Brazil August retail sales will also cross, while Argentina monthly CPI inflation is expected to drop below 4% in September.
  • In the US, today’s CPI print could define price action into the close, with last week's bumper NFP print squashing the likelihood of another 50bp rate cut step at the Fed's November meeting. As a result, the bar for a market-moving surprise upon release is certainly higher relative to the rest of this year's releases. Nonetheless, a particularly strong print could raise outside expectations that the Fed could skip a cut entirely at their next meeting.
  • USD/JPY is softer off overnight highs headed into the NY crossover, as markets pare a small part of yesterday's solid rally. The pair touched 149.55 in Tokyo trade - a level that could be revisited on any further upside for US yields today.