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LATAM: Summary – September 09

LATAM
  • The BCB’s Focus survey on Monday will be of interest given calls for rate hikes in Brazil. Last week’s survey showed that analysts still expect the SELIC rate to end this year at the current 10.50%. This will be followed by Chile trade data and Mexico CPI inflation, both for August. Latest consensus is for headline inflation to fall back to 5.06% y/y, while core inflation edges down to 4.0%. Argentina IP data for July will also cross.
  • In the US, wholesale inventories and trade sales numbers are next on the schedule, with the NY Fed's 1-year inflation expectations metric also set for release. There are no central bank speakers of note after the late run of Fed members last week, and the ECB remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
  • The JPY is offered early Monday, helping undo a large part of the correction lower off post-payrolls highs. The weaker JPY is aiding a recovery in the greenback, with the USD Index again above 101.50. The firming USD is evident against most others in G10 with the exception of CAD, as USD/CAD fails on the test of the 200-dma at 1.3587 last week, re-orienting the focus back lower.
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  • The BCB’s Focus survey on Monday will be of interest given calls for rate hikes in Brazil. Last week’s survey showed that analysts still expect the SELIC rate to end this year at the current 10.50%. This will be followed by Chile trade data and Mexico CPI inflation, both for August. Latest consensus is for headline inflation to fall back to 5.06% y/y, while core inflation edges down to 4.0%. Argentina IP data for July will also cross.
  • In the US, wholesale inventories and trade sales numbers are next on the schedule, with the NY Fed's 1-year inflation expectations metric also set for release. There are no central bank speakers of note after the late run of Fed members last week, and the ECB remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
  • The JPY is offered early Monday, helping undo a large part of the correction lower off post-payrolls highs. The weaker JPY is aiding a recovery in the greenback, with the USD Index again above 101.50. The firming USD is evident against most others in G10 with the exception of CAD, as USD/CAD fails on the test of the 200-dma at 1.3587 last week, re-orienting the focus back lower.