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LATAM: Week Ahead: Brazil Selic Rate Decision, Peru, Colombia Economic Activity

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  • Shortly after the anticipated FOMC rate cut on Wednesday, attention will turn to the Copom meeting, where policymakers are expected to begin a tightening cycle on the back of deanchored inflation expectations, robust growth and pressure on the exchange rate. Elsewhere, Peru and Colombia economic activity data are due, as is Argentina Q2 GDP, where another large quarterly contraction in the economy is expected.
    • On Sunday, Peru economic activity is expected to rise by 3.2% y/y in July, improving from June’s weak 0.2% print. The Lima unemployment rate is expected to edge up in August, however.
    • The BCB’s weekly Focus survey will be released on Monday, ahead of the Copom meeting. In the previous survey, analysts raised their end-2024 Selic rate forecast by 75bp to 11.25%. Colombia IP and retail sales figures will also cross, with activity expected to have improved in July.
    • Attention remains on the BCB on Wednesday, when the Copom is expected to deliver a 25bp Selic rate hike to 10.75%. Ahead of the decision, Mexico Q2 aggregate supply and demand, Colombia July economic activity and Argentina Q2 GDP are all due. GDP is expected to fall by 1.6% q/q and 1.4% y/y in Argentina.
    • Colombia trade balance figures for July are expected on Thursday, along with latest trade, unemployment and budget data in Argentina.
    • In Mexico, Citi’s survey of economists is due on Friday.
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  • Shortly after the anticipated FOMC rate cut on Wednesday, attention will turn to the Copom meeting, where policymakers are expected to begin a tightening cycle on the back of deanchored inflation expectations, robust growth and pressure on the exchange rate. Elsewhere, Peru and Colombia economic activity data are due, as is Argentina Q2 GDP, where another large quarterly contraction in the economy is expected.
    • On Sunday, Peru economic activity is expected to rise by 3.2% y/y in July, improving from June’s weak 0.2% print. The Lima unemployment rate is expected to edge up in August, however.
    • The BCB’s weekly Focus survey will be released on Monday, ahead of the Copom meeting. In the previous survey, analysts raised their end-2024 Selic rate forecast by 75bp to 11.25%. Colombia IP and retail sales figures will also cross, with activity expected to have improved in July.
    • Attention remains on the BCB on Wednesday, when the Copom is expected to deliver a 25bp Selic rate hike to 10.75%. Ahead of the decision, Mexico Q2 aggregate supply and demand, Colombia July economic activity and Argentina Q2 GDP are all due. GDP is expected to fall by 1.6% q/q and 1.4% y/y in Argentina.
    • Colombia trade balance figures for July are expected on Thursday, along with latest trade, unemployment and budget data in Argentina.
    • In Mexico, Citi’s survey of economists is due on Friday.