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Late Market Roundup, Short End Underperforming

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are trading mostly weaker: 2s through 10s holding to a narrow range for much of the second half. Rates pared early gains after Wholesale Inventories comes out softer (-0.2% MoM vs. -0.1% est) Trade Sales firmer than expected (0.8% MoM vs. 0.2% est).
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q3 was unrevised at 5.6% in today’s latest estimate, with near zero impact from today’s wholesale trade report (changes in inventories are still seen providing a strong 1.4pps to quarterly growth).
  • The second unrevised estimate at 5.6% sees some stability having pulled back from earlier vintages of 5.9%, but it’s clearly still incredibly strong after 2.1% in Q2.
  • It’s particularly strong when compared to other regional Fed trackers as well, with today’s relaunching of the NY Fed’s take at 2.25% for Q3 and the St Louis Fed’s economic news index at just -0.1% as of last week.
  • Consumer Credit figures for July climbed +10.4B with revolving credit +9.6B.
  • Cross asset, equities reversed midmorning gains, SPX holding near steady in late trade (4455.0 -1.25); Crude +.50 at 87.37; Gold -1.42 at 1918.26.
  • Scant data kicks off the week ahead, Fed in policy blackout, while US Treasury supply resumes with 3Y Note Monday.
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