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US MAR AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.3% Vs FEB +0.2%; +4.1% YOY

MNI: US MAR NONFARM PAYROLLS +303K; PRIVATE +232K, GOVT +71K

US MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 3.8%

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Late Rate Rally, Risk-Off as Omicron Comes to US

US TSYS

Rates rebounded early in second half, finish session on highs after the first Omicron-Covid variant reported in US (California, from individual that was fully vaccinated). Geopol concerns over Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan tensions likely adding to the renewed risk-off tone. Risk assets tumbled late (ESZ1 -57.0; WTI -95.0).

  • Tsys held weaker levels for much of the first half, in-line ADP employment (+534K vs. Exp. +525k) largely ignored, started to rebound after Fed Chairman Powell comments largely echoed Tue's hawkish tone until: "Taper need not be disruptive event in markets" spurred some sell unwinds. Trading desks reported decent real$ buying in 2s, 20s and 30s, better deal-tied rate-locks in 10s and 30s in the first half.
  • Tsy futures traded steady (10s) to mixed, curves flatter after first Omicron variant reported in California. Noted buyers earlier in the session, trading desks report real$ selling 30s with leveraged$ accts, central bank selling 20s helping keep rates relatively in line. Large Block buys well through offers late in 30Y, 10- and 30Y ultra-bonds.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.6bps at 0.5592%, 5-Yr is down 1.8bps at 1.1419%, 10-Yr is down 2.9bps at 1.4155%, and 30-Yr is down 3.3bps at 1.7578%.
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