Latest MRP Poll Gives Labour 314-Seat Majority Over PM's Conservatives

The latest MRP (Multilevel regression with poststratification) poll from SavantaComRes has Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservative Party facing a near wipe-out should the poll's numbers be reflected in the next general election, with Labour on course for a 314-seat majority.

• The poll shows the main opposition centre-left Labour Party winning 482 seats to the Conservatives' 69, in what would be the worst result in the latter's history since its predecessor the Tory Party first stood for election in 1661.
• Westminster Voting Intention (MRP): Labour: 48% (+3), Conservative: 28% (-5), Liberal Democrat: 11% (+1), ReformUK: 4% (+1), Greens: 3% (-1)
• Seat Projection (GB): Labour: 482 (+280), Conservative: 69 (-296), Scottish National Party: 55 (+7), Liberal Democrat: 21 (+10), Plaid Cymru: 4 (=), Greens: 1 (=). SavantaComRes, Fieldwork: 2-5 Dec.Vote Changes w/ 15-16 Sep & Seats with GE2019.
• Link to poll and tables: https://savanta.com/knowledge-centre/view/mrp-poll...
• Sam Wong at The New Scientist outlines why MRP polls gain notable attention from political observers: "MRP allows you to predict local results from national surveys, even if your poll had few respondents from that constituency. Instead, you use census data, such as the age and income distributions of voters in that area, and put that into the model with the national survey data. Then you can make granular predictions by assuming that people in a certain demographic bracket in one area [...] have similar preferences to people in the same bracket in another area."