Latest Polls Show CDU Support Shrinking Ahead Of 14-Mar State Elections

The latest opinion polling ahead of state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Wurttemberg on 14 March show a small but consistent decline in support for the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), to the benefit of the two largest parties in each state, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens respectively.

• Rhineland-Palatinate state election poll: SPD: 33% (+2), CDU: 29% (-4), Grüne: 11% (-2), AfD: 9% (+2), FDP: 7% (+2), FW: 4%, Die Linke: 3% (-1). FGW, 01-04/03/21, chgs w/01-04/02/21. Sample size: 998
• Württemberg regional election), FGW poll: GRÜNE: 35% (+1), CDU: 24% (-4), AfD: 11%, SPD: 10%, FDP: 10% (+1), LINKE: 3%. +/- vs. 1-4 February 2021. Fieldwork: 1-4 March 2021. Sample size: 1,032
• In Rhineland-Palatinate the SPD leads a coalition with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), while in Baden-Wurttemberg the Greens lead a coalition with the CDU as the junior partner.
• The decline in support for the CDU at the state level has not - so far - been mirrored in a decline in support for the party at the national level ahead of the federal election likely to take place this September. Nevertheless, the federal gov't remains under pressure due to a slow rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, contradictory information from gov't officials on the AstraZeneca vaccine, and the expected extension of lockdown restrictions.
• A poor performance in the state elections could heap more pressure on CDU chief Armin Laschet. It remains unclear whether he or Markus Soeder, Minister-President of Bavaria and head of the CDU's sister party the CSU, will be the centre-right's candidate for chancellor in the September election.