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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
The latest Yahoo News/YouGov opinion pollgives recently re-elected Florida Governor Ron DeSantis a 5% lead on former President Donald Trump in the early stakes to take the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
- The poll of 1,635 voters who are Republicans or independents who lean Republican from 1-5 Dec showed 47% backing DeSantis compared to 42% for Trump and 9% not sure. This compares to a 13-17 October poll that gave Trump 45% backing to DeSantis' 36%.
- The decline in support for Trump comes at a nadir in his recent political tenure following a disappointing midterm season for the Republican Party, with the coup de grace coming in the 6 Dec Georgia US Senate run-off, where incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated Trump-backed challenger Herschel Walker.
- It remains too far out from the election to discount a comeback for Trump, especially given the staunch support he engenders in sections of the Republican Party grassroots.
- However, at present it is looking like an uphill struggle for Trump compared to DeSantis, whose star has risen dramatically as Florida has shifted from swing state towards being if not solid then at least leaning Republican under his governorship.
Chart 1. 2024 GOP Nomination Opinion Polling, %
Source: YouGov/Yahoo News. N.b. 'I would not vote' only an option on Dec poll.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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