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Less Reliance On Health & Social Assistance For Private Job Gains

US DATA
  • Looking by industry, health & social assistance again provided a large contribution, rising a seasonally adjusted 59k (36% of the 164k private payrolls growth), but it’s smaller than the 96k or 71% of November’s 136k private payrolls gains.
  • Retail trade registered a sizeable swing on the month, rising +17k from -24k (revised from -38k), as did professional & business, rising +13k after -19k.
  • Monthly declines were concentrated in transportation & warehousing’s -23k, only the third smallest decline in five months as the sector pulls back from very strong increases post-pandemic. Elsewhere there were negligible declines for mining & logging and other services.
  • The net effect was that the BLS’s 1-month diffusion index for the private sector increased 3pts to 59.6 for its highest since 60.0 in August and before that January. It averaged 58.5 in 2019.
  • Nevertheless, the public sector is still carrying a lot of weight, rising a strong 52k. It has averaged 56k per month in 2023 vs 18k per month in 2019 but has for a few months now more than recovered its pandemic decline.

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