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Light Hawkish Drift In SONIA, 38bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

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SONIA futures mostly lower with core global FI markets remaining under pressure early this week.

  • Contracts flat to -3.0 and could come under more pressure if gilts open notably lower.
  • BoE-dated OIS also see a light hawkish drift, showing 25bp of cuts through the Nov MPC and ~38bp of easing through year end.
  • Final manufacturing PMI data headlines today’s domestic schedule, with little in the way of meaningful UK risk events scheduled through this week.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.916-3.5
Nov-244.701-25.0
Dec-244.569-38.1
Feb-254.373-57.7
Mar-254.235-71.5
May-254.073-87.7
Jun-253.985-96.5
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SONIA futures mostly lower with core global FI markets remaining under pressure early this week.

  • Contracts flat to -3.0 and could come under more pressure if gilts open notably lower.
  • BoE-dated OIS also see a light hawkish drift, showing 25bp of cuts through the Nov MPC and ~38bp of easing through year end.
  • Final manufacturing PMI data headlines today’s domestic schedule, with little in the way of meaningful UK risk events scheduled through this week.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.916-3.5
Nov-244.701-25.0
Dec-244.569-38.1
Feb-254.373-57.7
Mar-254.235-71.5
May-254.073-87.7
Jun-253.985-96.5