MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, November 20

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Aluminium Exporters To Renegotiate Prices

MNI BRIEF: BOJ October Real Export Index Falls 4.9% M/M

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY69.1 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1935 Weds; +0.09% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY302.1 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI: EUROZONE SEP CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT -0.1% M/M, -1.6% Y/Y

MNI: GERMANY OCT PRODUCER PRICES -1.1% Y/Y

MNI: UK OCT CPI +0.6% M/M, +2.3% Y/Y

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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Little Changed After Domestic Data, No Change Expected From The RBA

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM +0.5) are dealing mixed ahead of today’s RBA Policy Decision at 1430 AEDT. The RBA is widely expected to deliver an unchanged cash rate. (see MNI RBA Preview here)

  • Today’s domestic data drop showed Judo Bank Composite & Services PMIs at 26-month lows and a 3Q Current Account in deficit. The current account moved to a deficit of A$158m (estimate +A$3.2b) in 3Q from a revised +A$7.8b in 2Q. “The current account deficit reflected a reduced trade surplus, driven by falls in key export commodities prices, while the net primary income deficit narrowed slightly,” said ABS. Net exports will detract 0.6ppts from 3Q GDP (due tomorrow).
  • The local market has also been supported by offshore bond developments after Tokyo CPI for November surprised on the downside. US tsys have slightly pared Monday’s losses in Asia-Pac trading.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1bp cheaper to 1bp richer, with the 2/10 curve flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential 2bps tighter at +18bps.
  • The swaps curve has twist-flattened, with rate movements bounded by +/-2bps.
  • The bills strip is slightly cheaper, with pricing -1 to -2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat across meetings, with the market attaching a 12% probability to a 25bps rate hike today.
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