MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

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MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Little Changed Ahead Of US Payrolls, Holiday On Monday, Tokyo CPI On Tuesday

JGBS

JGB futures have pared overnight weakness back to an uptick of +4 compared to settlement levels.

  • There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined Monetary Base and Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI data. Consumer confidence is due later but is unlikely to be a market mover.
  • Accordingly, local participants appear to have been content to fade overnight US tsy-induced weakness through the local session ahead of tonight’s release of US Non-Farm Payrolls.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 171k in December after November’s 199k was boosted by 38k workers returning from strikes. See MNI's NFP Preview here.
  • Bloomberg reported that more BoJ watchers joined those pushing back their predictions for the end of negative rates in the wake of the New Year’s Day earthquake and recent remarks by Governor Kazuo Ueda. (See link)
  • Cash US tsys are dealing little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Cash JGBs are dealing slightly mixed across the curve. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.5bp lower at 0.610% versus the Nov-Dec rally low of 0.555%.
  • Swap rates are richer across maturities, with rates 1-2bps lower. Swap spreads are tighter out to the 30-year and wider beyond.
  • Next week sees a public holiday on Monday followed by Tokyo CPI on Tuesday.
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