Little Changed, RBA Gov. Lowe Speech Today, May-28 Supply

ACGBs are slightly richer (YM +flat & XM flat). This follows a relatively calm NY session for US tsys, which witnessed a twist flattening of the curve. Traders now turn their attention to US CPI data later today.

• Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% m/m in June as it slowed from a modest beat of 0.44% in May. An above-expected print with strong details in ex-shelter services would reinforce the "higher for longer" theme; a miss most impactful for September pricing. See the MNI CPI preview here.
• FOMC implied rates were unchanged for the Jul 26 decision (+22bp) but edged higher beyond.
• Cash ACGBs opened unchanged with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -1bp at +21bp.
• Swap rates opened flat.
• Bills pricing is -2 to +2 with the strip flatter.
• RBA dated OIS little changed across meetings.
• Today the local calendar's highlight is RBA Governor Lowe’s speech (0400 BST) to the Economic Society of Australia, titled ‘The Reserve Bank Review and Monetary Policy”. Investors will be hoping to gain insights into the central bank's level of concern regarding inflation after the policy pause this month. (See link).
• Today the AOFM plans to sell A$700mn of the 2.25% 21 May 2028 bond.