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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Rounds Out Cabinet Nominations
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Week Ahead 25 Nov-1 Dec
Little React to June FOMC Minutes, Rates Near Lows
- US rates finished broadly weaker, near late session lows Wednesday, as attention quickly turned to employment data (ADP early Thu, NFP Fri) that drove yields higher in the run up to the June FOMC minutes is back in focus. ADP Employment Change 225k est vs. 278k prior; Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 225k est vs. 339k prior.
- "Almost all participants noted that in their economic projections that they judged that additional increases in the target federal funds rate during 2023 would be appropriate," the report said. “Some participants indicated that they favored raising the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported such a proposal.”
- Front month 10Y futures just marked 111-10.5 low (-19.5; yld 3.9434% high) before bouncing to 111-13 after the bell. Key technical support remains at 110-27+, the Mar 2 low. Curves remain steeper with short end rates outperforming (2s10s +7.831 at -100.717).
- There has been very little change in implied Fed rates with the dust settled on the FOMC minutes, which revealed that “some” participants favored hiking 25bps last month or could have supported such a proposal.
- FOMC-dated OIS sits with a 21.5bp hike for the Jul 26 decision, building to a cumulative 33bp of hikes to a terminal 5.40% in November, before 4bp of cuts to year-end and 51bp of cuts to Jun’24.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.