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Little React to June FOMC Minutes, Rates Near Lows

US TSYS
  • US rates finished broadly weaker, near late session lows Wednesday, as attention quickly turned to employment data (ADP early Thu, NFP Fri) that drove yields higher in the run up to the June FOMC minutes is back in focus. ADP Employment Change 225k est vs. 278k prior; Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 225k est vs. 339k prior.
  • "Almost all participants noted that in their economic projections that they judged that additional increases in the target federal funds rate during 2023 would be appropriate," the report said. “Some participants indicated that they favored raising the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported such a proposal.”
  • Front month 10Y futures just marked 111-10.5 low (-19.5; yld 3.9434% high) before bouncing to 111-13 after the bell. Key technical support remains at 110-27+, the Mar 2 low. Curves remain steeper with short end rates outperforming (2s10s +7.831 at -100.717).
  • There has been very little change in implied Fed rates with the dust settled on the FOMC minutes, which revealed that “some” participants favored hiking 25bps last month or could have supported such a proposal.
  • FOMC-dated OIS sits with a 21.5bp hike for the Jul 26 decision, building to a cumulative 33bp of hikes to a terminal 5.40% in November, before 4bp of cuts to year-end and 51bp of cuts to Jun’24.
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