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Lloyds view ahead of this week's MPC meeting

BOE
  • Lloyds look for a unanimous vote for unchanged policy but note that the BOE's "framing of the outlook to point to likelihood of further easing ahead."
  • "The overall message from the MPC [will be] consistent with the possibility of further policy easing being announced in the coming months, with a clear expression that asset purchases will be the preferred policy tool."
  • On QE pace Lloyds note that "the BoE will provide some additional information on the rate of asset purchases following the August policy meeting, however, it is highly likely that the MPC will maintain some degree of flexibility to further alter the rate depending on economic and market conditions." In addition Lloyds point out that a pace of GBP4.5bln would be consistent with purchases continuing through to December.
  • Lloyds thinks that "the MPC are likely to remain content with their previous comments that negative interest rates are not part of the 'active policy discussion'. Therefore, while it is possible that the BoE may suggest that taking Bank Rate into negative territory is more feasible now than was previously … we expect the MPC to do little to suggest that such a move would form part of any near-term policy response"

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