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LNG Market Oversupply From 2027: BNEF

LNG

The LNG market is set for an oversupply from 2027 with demand growth, led by expanding infrastructure and efforts to reduce carbon-intensity, lagging the expansion in supply, according to BNEF.

  • The oversupply will lead to downward pressure on prices but with persistent volatility amid potential project delays and Russian LNG sanctions.
  • Total global demand is expected to reach 560m metric tons by 2030 but 63m tons lower than total expected supply.
  • Europe will remain highly vulnerable to unplanned supply outages and weather deviations in Europe or Asia with the LNG share of total gas supply estimated at 43% to 44% over 2026 to 2030.
  • More than 46m tons of LNG demand upside could be driven by lower Central Asian pipeline exports to mainland China, lower than expected nuclear in Japan and South Korea, tighter coal efficiency in Japan, and LNG-to-power projects in Vietnam.
  • The market could be tighter than forecast in 2025-26 with between 15m and 43m tons of supply potentially impacted by any construction project delays of six to 12 months.
  • Additional sanctions could remove 21m tons of Russian LNG in 2030.
  • Asia’s LNG uncontracted demand is estimated to rise from 22m tons in 2023 to 95m tons in 2030.


Source: Bloomberg

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