Local Big-4 Banks More Optimistic On Jobs Report Than Consensus

Australia’s August labour market data is released on Thursday and the number of new jobs is forecast to rise by more than the holiday-impacted 14.6k fall in July. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged.

• Consensus according to Bloomberg is expecting a 25k rise in jobs for August with most estimates between +20k and +40k although the range spans from -20k to +50k. The big-4 local banks projections are all above consensus with ANZ at 30k, CBA & Westpac at 40k and NAB 50k.
• 2023 has averaged 33.7k monthly job gains year to date and June saw +31.6k. A 55k gain in August employment would be needed for July/August to average 20k/mth. Given that July was impacted by the timing of school holidays and the labour market is showing little sign of loosening, including the August increase in the NAB measure of labour demand, there could be upside risks to consensus.
• The unemployment rate is forecast to be steady at 3.7% with estimates between 3.6% and 3.9% with most 3.6-3.7%. ANZ, NAB and Westpac all expect it to dip to 3.6% while CBA is projecting 3.7%.
• The participation rate is predicted to be unchanged at 66.7% after falling from May’s 66.9%. Forecasts are between 66.6% and 66.8%.