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Local Holiday, BanRep Minutes Affirm Data Dependent Stance

COLOMBIA
  • Colombia’s central bank published the minutes of last week’s meeting on Friday, where BanRep kept the policy rate steady at 13.25%, in a split 5-2 vote. Local markets are closed today for a public holiday. October inflation data is expected to dip to 10.61% and will be released after the close on Wednesday.
  • In the minutes, directors emphasised domestic risks stemming from the rising likelihood of a strong El Niño phenomenon, which could impact agricultural and energy markets.
  • Additionally, they anticipate repercussions from the minimum wage increase on the indexed prices of specific goods and services. Furthermore, they perceive global political uncertainty as a new external risk factor.
  • The statement highlighted the desirability of commencing a process to gradually reduce rates as soon as it is prudent. The majority voting faction continues to underscore the prevalence of inflationary risks. The decision to maintain the current rate unchanged serves to contain inflation expectations and safeguard the Bank's credibility, an aspect that had previously been noted by co-director Acosta.
  • Dissenting voters consider these risks relatively minor compared to the downside risk facing economic activity and employment. This concern particularly pertains to the impact of interest rates on investment projects.
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