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Long End Rally Extends From Lower Real Yields And Breakevens Alike

US TSYS
  • The day’s rally in long end Treasuries extends further, in line with oil woes on weakening global demand, with 10YY -7.8bps as they unwind half of yesterday’s sell-off and the 30YY -8.2bps as it pulls back from eight-year highs.
  • As opposed to yesterday’s purely real yield led sell-off, this rally is led by a combination of breakevens and real yields drifting lower.
  • TYZ2 trades 16+ ticks higher at 116-03+, pulling back after yesterday’s clearance of a bear trigger and today’s further low of 115-13+. The recent trend has been downward, but should today’s upward momentum continue, resistance is seen at 116-26 (Sep 2 high).
  • After limited initial reaction to Brainard’s prepared remarks, front end yields are also moving lower, currently -4.3bps but again within yesterday’s wide range whilst with an eye on Chair Powell's comments tomorrow.
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