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Long-End Yields Rebound


The Tsy curve has been bear steepening early Monday: 30s are underperforming with the short end/belly relatively anchored ahead of ISM data and Fed speakers.

  • 30s are still well within Friday's ranges though (let alone the 29bps range beginning late Thursday thru end-week). The 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.1289%, 5-Yr is down 1.6bps at 0.7153%, 10-Yr is up 3.6bps at 1.441%, and 30-Yr is up 6.9bps at 2.2198%.
  • Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) up 12.5/32 at 133-3.5 (L: 133-02.5 / H: 133-16.5).
  • Very much a risk-on session with a sea of green for commodities and equities overnight, with the dollar rebounding from early lows.
  • Fed speakers get an opportunity to refine the FOMC's messaging post-Tsy selloff and pre-blackout period (which begins at week-end). NY Fed's Williams at 0900ET followed swiftly by Gov Brainard at 0905ET, with Bostic, Mester and Kashkari later at 1400ET.
  • Final Feb PMI at 0945ET, followed by 1500ET's ISM manufacturing release alongside Jan construction spending.
  • 1130ET sees 13-/26-week bill auctions for $105bn. NY Fed buys ~$2.425B of 1-7.5Y TIPS.

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