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LPR's Seen On Hold

CNH

USD/CNH's up move ran out of steam above 7.0250. The pair finished just above 7.00 in NY in line with softer USD sentiment elsewhere. Support on the downside could be evident around yesterday’s low just ahead of 6.9900. Today's focus rests with the 1yr (3.65%) and 5yr (4.30%) LPR rate announcements. No change is expected in either rate, after last week’s MLF announcement was steady.

  • There is a little more focus on today's LPR announcements after last yesterday's cut in the 14-day repo rate (2.15% from 2.25% in January), although this move was seen in line with the August cut in the MLF rate rather than a fresh shift.
  • Any surprise move lower in today's LPR rates would be CNH negative. The US-CH 2yr government bond yield spread continues to trend higher, although China 2yr have moved away from a break sub-2.00%.
  • The other focus point will be onshore equity performance. Main bourses have lost ground for the past 4 sessions, although yesterday's dip was more modest compared to late last week (CSI 300 down 0.12% versus 2.35% on Friday).
  • Still, China relative equity performance compared to rest of the world has rolled over again.
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