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Lula Visits To Discuss Trade, Economic Activity Due Tomorrow

COLOMBIA
  • Brazilian President Lula will visit Colombia today to discuss trade, investments and environmental protection. Meanwhile, the Senate will resume the discussion on the articles of the pension reform at 1600BST (1100ET). Concerns that the pension reform may reduce demand for the country’s debt has put local bonds under pressure this week. Data wise, the calendar is empty, with focus on February economic activity, due tomorrow, followed by February trade data on Friday.
  • Further ahead, attention turns to the next BanRep meeting, scheduled for April 30. The recent central bank economists’ survey showed that analysts continue to expect another 50bp cut this month, followed by a 50bp move in June. Beyond that, expectations point to 75bp rate cuts at each of the subsequent meetings, bringing the policy rate to 8.25% by year-end.
  • Scotiabank also see limited scope to accelerate the easing cycle at this time, noting that recent minutes and public speeches highlight that the board prefers to maintain a cautious approach, especially given the volatile external backdrop and domestic fiscal risks. BanRep Governor Villar, in particular, has struck a consistently cautious tone, highlighting that inflation and inflation expectations remain well above target. In comments last Friday, however, he did acknowledge that if the inflation outlook improves then the pace of rate cuts could accelerate.
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