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Macklem - Last Few Inflation Readings Have Been Reasonably Good

CANADA
  • Macklem: Supply has played a much bigger role than we’re used to. In terms of what has been different (to the US), growth was essentially zero in 2H23 in the Canadian economy and it moved into excess supply. We’re now seeing the effects of that in relieving price pressures.
  • Mon pol is having more traction in Canada because of how mortgage markets are structured. We’ve had weaker consumption growth, somewhat masked by very rapid population growth.
  • Moving forward, we’re seeing growth starting to pick up, probably some choppiness quarter to quarter but expected growth to be sustained over the year, partly on the resilience of the US economy.
  • The path of inflation with the US is broadly similar but our last few inflation readings have been reasonably good, reflecting excess supply. We’re looking for evidence that it’s going to be sustained.
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