October 02, 2024 14:20 GMT
MACRO ANALYSIS: Stagflationary Port Strikes Could Impact November FOMC (1/4)
MACRO ANALYSIS
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Dockworkers at dozens of East and Gulf Coast ports initiated a strike on Monday night that risks a new round of shocks to the US supply chain and broader economy. It's the first such strike since 1977, which makes historical comparisons of the economic impact difficult (2014-15 saw a prolonged labor disruption on the West Coast).
The near-term impact looks relatively limited, though it could play a key role in the next FOMC decision in November. We should note that current betting-market implied odds (Polymarket) put the probability of a deal by next Friday (Oct 11) at 80%, with 96% probability it will be over by end-month - but if these expectations are wrong, the implications are worth considering. First, some figures:
- The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) union represents around 85k workers. The number of workers subject to the strike is somewhat in dispute: by most reports, around 45k are involved. The United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents the major shipping lines and port authorities, says that the contract covers 25k port workers, noting that not all of the employees work every day.
- Either way, the East and Gulf Coast ports in question account for around 40% of US port goods imports by value (the West coast is the other 60%). In volume (TEU) terms, the East/Gulf Coast represents a little over half of US container imports (with the West cost just under 50%) on a 12-month basis. On an export basis, over two-thirds of containerized exports go through the East/Gulf coast ports.
- The total value of trade through those ports is $2.1B daily, per the National Association of Manufacturers - over $700B on an annualized basis, or 15% of the $5T of goods imports+exports in 2023, or roughly 2.8% of 2023 GDP.
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