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MACRO ANALYSIS: Stagflationary Port Strikes Could Impact November FOMC (1/4)

MACRO ANALYSIS

Dockworkers at dozens of East and Gulf Coast ports initiated a strike on Monday night that risks a new round of shocks to the US supply chain and broader economy. It's the first such strike since 1977, which makes historical comparisons of the economic impact difficult (2014-15 saw a prolonged labor disruption on the West Coast). 

The near-term impact looks relatively limited, though it could play a key role in the next FOMC decision in November. We should note that current betting-market implied odds (Polymarket) put the probability of a deal by next Friday (Oct 11) at 80%, with 96% probability it will be over by end-month  - but if these expectations are wrong, the implications are worth considering. First, some figures: 

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Dockworkers at dozens of East and Gulf Coast ports initiated a strike on Monday night that risks a new round of shocks to the US supply chain and broader economy. It's the first such strike since 1977, which makes historical comparisons of the economic impact difficult (2014-15 saw a prolonged labor disruption on the West Coast). 

The near-term impact looks relatively limited, though it could play a key role in the next FOMC decision in November. We should note that current betting-market implied odds (Polymarket) put the probability of a deal by next Friday (Oct 11) at 80%, with 96% probability it will be over by end-month  - but if these expectations are wrong, the implications are worth considering. First, some figures: 

Keep reading...Show less