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Macro Economic Outlook "Bleak for Some Time": Energy Aspects

OIL

In general, OPEC policy has been very concerned about global oil demand weakness according to Energy Aspects director Amrita Sen.

  • OPEC are pre-empting a demand slowdown which is incentivizing OPEC+ to draw down inventories ahead of it worsening according to Sen.
  • “What matters is gasoline and diesel prices, crack spreads have been coming off a lot – even as Brent has gone up, we are not paying more at the pump, that is a big thing that gets lost” Sen said.
  • “I do think the macro-outlook has been bleak for some time, it’s just that Q3 there was a lot of euphoria around avoiding recessions, we’ve never been of that view. I think that data is just coming to roost right now.” Sen said.
  • “Every China refiner we have met has said the same thing, that China macro data and its oil demand have decoupled. You can see that in the data. You with think with a manufacturing slowdown that diesel demand would be weak, it hasn’t been.” Sen added.
  • Energy Aspects thinks that China oil demand growth will slow next year and sit around 500,000 bpd Sen concluded.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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