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MACRO ANALYSIS
  • In the past two months, we have seen that manufacturing PMIs in some EM economies have been deteriorating, plunging back below the 50-line threshold that separates growth from contraction.
  • Interestingly, the countries where PMIs have decreased the most are the ones with the lowest vaccination rate.
  • This chart (source: IHS) shows the interesting positive relationship between manufacturing PMIs and vaccination rate (per 100 people, at least 1 job).
  • To the exception of Malaysia, countries with s high vaccination rate (DM economies) have higher PMIs that countries with low vaccination rate (EM Economies).
  • Hence, the sharp divergence between EM and DM economies regarding the vaccination campaign could continue to weigh on EM FX currencies in the medium term.

Source: IHS

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