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March CPI Inflation Due After Market Close

COLOMBIA
  • The rally in the Colombian peso extended through Thursday’s session, with USDCOP breaking below the 3800 level that provided firm support back in December. The pair briefly dipped as low as 3760, the lowest since June 2022, buoyed by the further rally in oil prices yesterday. BBVA also note that part of the strong performance can be attributed to the failure of the health reform bill on Wednesday night.
  • The moves in COP stand in contrast to recent comments from Finance Minister Bonilla, who had expected the peso to weaken in the short-term. Bonilla voted for a 100bp interest rate cut at the recent BanRep MPC meeting (when it cut by 50bp) and so the latest FX strength could play into interest rate decisions ahead.
  • Attention now turns to the March CPI data, due at 0000BST(1900ET) tonight. Analysts expect headline inflation to moderate to 7.35% y/y, from 7.74%, while core inflation is expected to decline to 8.73%, from 9.20% in February, potentially opening the door to larger rate cuts ahead.
    • March CPI YoY, est. 7.35%, prior 7.74%
    • March Core CPI YoY, est. 8.73%, prior 9.20%
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