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March CPI Inflation Due at 1300BST

CHILE
  • Despite underperforming against the dollar on Friday, the Chilean peso still posted a 3.19% gain against the greenback last week, supported by more hawkish signals from the BCCh and a c.5.5% rally in copper prices. However, USDCLP medium-term trend conditions remain bullish and the current pullback is considered technically corrective for now. Support to watch lies at 935.63, the Mar 15 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension lower towards 922.80 initially.
  • After two months of strong CPI data, today’s March inflation figures will have a bearing on the central bank’s rate cutting cycle ahead and whether it opts to slow the pace of easing further at its next MPC meeting. CPI inflation is expected to slow to 3.9% y/y in March, from 4.5% (1300BST / 0800ET). Following that, March trade data will be released at 1330BST, with analysts expecting the trade surplus to rise to $1.865bn, from $1.524bn in February. Later this week, the only publication of note will be the BCCh economist survey on Wednesday.
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Marcel is due to speak in a lower house finance committee on tax reforms today.
    • March CPI YoY, est. 3.9%, prior 4.5%
    • March CPI MoM est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%
    • March Trade Balance, prior $1.52b
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