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March CPI Inflation Due Tomorrow

MEXICO
  • Last week’s Banxico minutes highlighted the data dependent approach for the board ahead, putting emphasis on tomorrow’s March CPI data, which are likely to highlight the stickiness of core, particularly core services inflation.
    • JP Morgan look for headline CPI at 0.36%m/m, nsa and core CPI at 0.51%, driving the y/y rates to 4.5% and 4.6%, respectively. They note that the sequential data on the core side remain concerning, although this is amplified by seasonal factors. JPM’s March/April forecasts suggest that services ex. housing and education is running at ~0.45%m/m, almost double its historical norm.
    • Scotiabank note that March CPI data may not surprise much with mid-month readings already in hand, but should reinforce worries about elevated core inflation. Core CPI is expected to print a large 0.5% m/m rise for the second consecutive month as progress in core prices growth stalls. Scotia think Banxico would prefer to stay on hold in May and have raised their year-end policy rate forecast by 50bp to 10.0%.
    • Itaú estimate headline and core inflation at 0.32% m/m and 0.48%, respectively. They expect downward pressure on headline from fruit and veg prices and liquefied gas tariffs, while core pressures from tourism-related factors, due to Easter, may partially ease in the second half of March. They expect headline CPI inflation to edge up to 4.46% y/y, while core eases to 4.59%.
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