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March IPCA Inflation Due Tomorrow

BRAZIL
  • March IPCA data will be released tomorrow, with the market looking for a further decline in the annual rate of inflation to 4.01% y/y, from 4.50% in February. This would be the lowest rate of CPI inflation since July last year.
    • BBVA note that March IPCA could finally be more benign, as some food pressures may start to fade and base effects could drive annual inflation a notch lower. In turn, they believe that this could support BRL, which has suffered from the latest uptrend in inflation prints and reduced commitment to easing from the BCB, which has weighed on local assets. Nevertheless, the pressure from core services may not dissipate completely, limiting the easing impact.
    • Santander expect underlying services to continue to be a source of risk, with prices there rising by 0.5%, and only starting to slow from April onwards. Nonetheless, they expect most core inflation measures to improve in March and are projecting an increase of just 0.23% m/m for the average of the five main core readings.
    • UBS expect food inflation to surprise to the downside in the second quarter, while industrial goods will have a downside bias throughout the year.
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