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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA DATA
- Canadian employment is seen rising a solid 25k (sa) in March after the stronger than expected 40.7k in Feb.
- However, with strong immigration-led labor force growth, it’s seen as not enough to prevent another rise in the u/e rate, this time with a 0.1pp lift to 5.9% after the 0.15pp increase in Feb.
- 5.9% would mark a fresh high since Jan’22 and leave a Sahm rule-equivalent further in recessionary territory at 0.8pts.
- Average hourly wage growth meanwhile, which continues to be a sticking point for the BoC, is seen edging a tenth higher to 5.0% Y/Y after easing more than expected in Feb from particularly strong rates at the turn of the year. Wage growth for permanent employees has averaged 5.0% Y/Y since Jun’22.
- CIBC write that wage “progress could stall in March due to less favourable base effects. The largest seasonally adjusted increases in wages during 2023 came during the summer, and so we may have to wait until closer to mid-year for the annual pace of wage growth to decelerate meaningfully.”
- Another downside surprise for wage growth would be well received by the BOC, which noted in March that there are now some signs that wage pressures may be easing.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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