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Marginal downside surprise, little market reaction

UK DATA
  • With only a small downside surprise to monthly GDP (one tenth miss in August and two tenth downward revision in July) there has been little impact on the currency following this morning's data release.
  • The downside was driven primarily by services which expanded by a slower-than-expected 0.3% in August (0.6% exp), despite being lifted by a 1.2% rose in consumer-facing activities. All other services rose by just 0.1%.
  • The weak data will raise questions about the strength of the UK recovery in Q3, with September likely to be very soft, owing to petrol shortages and a sharp rise in natural gas prices that dampened some industrial activity.
  • In terms of the Bank of England, output is 0.8% below February 2020 helped by the earlier upward revision to Q2 data. A number of MPC members are thought to be watching when we get back to the pre-pandemic level of output. Today's disappointment may add some caution to some MPC members, but whether that is enough to temper concerns about inflation moving higher remains to be seen.
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