Marginally Firmer In LNY Thinned Trade

Little to flag for the U.S. Tsy space in Asia-Pac hours given the ongoing LNY holidays, with a very light bid creeping in as e-minis ticked lower. T-Notes last +0-00+ at 136-28, within a 0-03+ range, aided by a couple of 1.5-2.0K lifts in TYH1 (as we have flagged). Light bull flattening has been seen in the cash space, with 30s sitting ~1.0bp richer on the day. There has been little in the way of notable headline flow, although the Australian state of Victoria has gone into a 5-day circuit breaker lockdown after < 20 COVID cases became apparent in the state, while there are questions re: the appropriateness of planning surrounding the next stage of the UK's COVID vaccine drive. Domestically, the latest U.S. daily new COVID case count rose back above 100K for the first time this week. None of these headlines are deemed to be gamechangers, but are incrementally negative.

• The space cheapened on Thursday, with bear steepening apparent as 30s went out ~4.5bp cheaper on the day. A soft round of 30-Year supply from the Treasury was front and centre during the NY afternoon, bucking the trend seen across the earlier rounds of this week's coupon supply. The cover ratio witnessed at the auction slid below the recent average, while dealer participation ticked up from the record lows seen in January's supply, printing at more normal levels. Tsys were generally heavy for most of the U.S. session, even with equity markets chopping around, as most struggled to pin much of a fundamental driver to the move. Path of least resistance after the backup from recent cheaps in the long end with fiscal matters eyed is a potential thematic background driver here. There was little in the way of tangible reaction to the latest round of weekly jobless claims data, which disappointed at the margins. We also saw some positive vaccine news, with the U.S. government purchasing an additional 200mn doses, although the Washington Post cautioned that the move is unlikely to make the vaccine widely available sooner than originally planned, but it may prevent shortages later this year.
• UoM sentiment data headlines a slim local docket ahead of the elongated U.S. holiday weekend.