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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FINLAND
Opinion polling from Finland ahead of the 2 April general election shows the five-party coalition gov't of PM Sanna Marin ahead of the joint parties of the opposition, but with the lead steadily narrowing. In the event of a change in gov't, there is unlikely to be any alteration in Helsinki's accession process in joining NATO, with the opposition voicing support for the process.
- This election will be the first contested by centre-left Social Democrat (SDP) leader Marin, who came to power in late 2019, after a scandal surrounding the national postal service brought down SDP PM Antti Rinne.
- Marin's SDP govern in a five-party centre-left coalition alongside the agrarian Centre Party (Kesk), the environmentalist Green League (Vihr), socialist Left Alliance (Vas), and Swedish minority-interest Swedish People's Party.
- The main opposition comes from the political right in the form of the conservative National Coalition Party (Kok), right-wing nationalist Finns Party (PS), and economic liberal Movement Now (Liik).
- The average lead for the gov't over the opposition has fallen from 9.3% in June 2022, to 4.3% in December 2022.
- Marin's SDP also trails the National Coalition Party in individual party polling, meaning that after the election Kok leader Petteri Orpo could be provided the first mandate to seek to form a gov't. Orpo's party holds broadly similar views to the SDP in terms of foreign and security policy, instead differing on economic policy in backing lower taxes and greater fiscal rectitude.
Chart 1. Finnish General Election Opinion Polling by Bloc, % and 2-Poll Moving Average
Source: Taloustutkimus, Kantar Public, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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