MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Decision in 5 mins

BOE
  • Markets price in around 33bp for today's meeting (around a 30% probability of a 50bp hike).
  • Given what is priced in further out for markets is dislocated from what the market is pricing, I think the vote split is also showing some dislocation.
  • The Bloomberg consensus looks for a 9-0 vote, but the MNI Markets team expects that would be interpretted dovishly by market participants. So that’s why we think it’s closer to a 7-2 vote that would be closer to neutral for a market reaction. Of course this has the caveat of what happens to the forward guidance and whether the "coming months" time contingency remains. But given the split between economists and markets, it’s much more uncertain this time than normal exactly what the market is pricing for today's meeting.
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