Market Roundup: Rates, Cross Assets Weaker After Mixed Data

Tsy futures still trading weaker but off early session lows following raft of mixed data: Retail sales headline stronger than exp (0.3% vs. -0.1% est) while core and control segments weaker, Philly Fed mfg weaker than exp (-9.9 vs. 2.5 est) - offset by Empire

beat (-1.5 from -31.3, cons. -12.9), weekly claims lower than exp (213k vs. 227k est) as were continuing clams (1.403M vs. 1.478M est).

• Tsys climbed to session highs by midmorning (30YY slipped to 3.451% low) heading into lower than expected Industrial Production of -0.2% vs. 0.1% est and Cap-U of 80.0% vs. 80.2% -- the two not very consequential, but support for rates evaporated w/ Tsys back near lows by midmorning.
• Technicals for Dec 10Y futures currently at 114-18 (-13): Tue’s post-CPI break lower confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle that started Aug 2. Sights are on the key support at 114-06, the Jun 14 low. A break of this level would confirm an important technical break and highlight a resumption of the broader downtrend, exposing the 114-00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 116-26, the Sep 2 high.
• With wk's data out of the way (U-Mich sentiment Friday), markets back to headline watching and debating likelihood of 75bp hike from the Fed next week vs. waning chance of 100bp as short end futures bounced.
• Current cross-asset levels: Stocks weaker, SPX extending lows ) ESU2 at 3915.50 (-32.0), Crude weaker (WTI -3.57 at 84.91) as is Gold (1667.74 -29.58).