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Market Snapshot Ahead of NBH Meeting

HUNGARY
  • Today, the NBH could surprise market by raising the benchmark rate by 30bps to curb the inflationary pressures. Consensus is expecting a 15bps hike (decision at 1pm London time).
  • USDHUF has been retracing lower today, currently trading at a 2-week low at around 309; next level to watch on the downside stands at 306.50.
  • Momentum on Hungary 10Y yield pauses today after testing a local high at 3.89% yesterday. Next key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 4%, which will bring us to June 2015 highs.
  • Equities have been retracing slightly lower in the past few days after BUX index hit an all-time high at 55,306 on Friday.
  • A higher-than-expected increase today could ease the selling pressure on HUF and on LT bonds. USDHUF could retest its 306.50 support in that scenario.
  • On the other hand, a 15bps hike could lead to further HUF depreciation in the short term, which would continue to support inflation expectations.
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