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Markets Becalmed as Government Shutdown Can Kicked

FOREX
  • Markets trade on a steadier footing following the avoidance of a fully fledged government shutdown, after a last minute deal was struck in the House and Senate over the weekend. Perhaps most importantly, the deal means the NFP release this Friday and the Oct 12 September CPI will go ahead as planned (as will the MNI previews), giving the Fed all planned data releases for the November 1st rate decision.
  • That said, the can-kicking element is very present, with November 17th the new crunch date that markets will narrow in on for the coming month or so. Should no funding deal be secured by then, it's likely markets go through another bout of short-term uncertainty leading in to that date.
  • EURCHF is rolling over to keep CHF the strongest performing currency in G10, with the moves following the failed test of the 0.97 handle last week. This marks a bearish development for the cross and longs are likely taking profit on the late September recovery. EUR/CHF eyes support at 0.9609 and 0.9589 - with both levels marking retracements off the September rally.
  • Focus Monday turns to Fedspeak, with Fed's Powell, Harker and Williams all set to make appearances. The Fed chair speaks at a roundtable alongside Harker to participate in discussions with workers, business owners and community leaders. ISM Manufacturing data also crosses, expected to improve very slightly to 47.9 from 47.6.
  • Markets remain on watch for any clues within the data for this Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls release, for which markets expect job gains of 165k and an lower unemployment rate at 3.7%.
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