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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RUSSIA
- Rate hike risks increasing post-March
- Markets have been pricing in a tighter policy stance from the CBR in the coming months as runaway inflation forces the bank to reassess its estimations of the longevity of the recent overshooting in CPI to 5.7% in Feb.
- Mosprime-6x9 FRA Spreads indicating ~56.5bp of hikes over a 6-9 month horizon, ticking up substantially since the start of 2021 (see graphic attached)
- For now the sell-side sees 100bp of hikes as potentially too much in 2021 – aligning closer to ~50-75bp, but a more pronounced and protracted period of inflation than is being priced in could result in a tighter stance.
- Expectation is for Friday's meeting to be a hawkish hold, with the balance of risks tilted to the upside going forward.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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