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EGB SUMMARY: Markets continued to recalibrate ECB tightening expectations
following further indications Wednesday morning that next week`s Governing
Council meeting could in fact be accompanied by an announcement on ending QE.
- 10-year Bund yields are up 6.3bps to 0.432%, with some bear curve steepening
on a 2s10s basis (up 3.2bps to 104.6bps), but 10s30s spread declining (down
2.6bps to 68.3bps) as 30s have outperformed.
- Italian BTPs have had a rollercoaster day on the ECB news, despite little new
insight on the new government`s economic platform, as the lower house prepares
for a vote of confidence. The 10-year spread over Bunds widened as far as
255.9bps at one point, but has retreated to 239.5bps, down 2.6bps on the day.
- Despite modest upticks in yield, Spain, Portugal, and Greece 10-year bond
spreads are all slightly tighter on the day amid the Bund sell-off.
- The hawkish rhetoric is impacting ECB rate expectations. MNI PINCH calculates
that markets have brought forward a 10bps rate hike from Sep19 to Jun19.
- Longer-dated Euribor futures have sold off sharply, with Green and Blue
contracts off 5.5-6 ticks, and Whites down just 1.5-2.